Climate Resilience Analysis
Hendrikson DGE prepares climate resilience assessments (Climate Proofing) that must be conducted for all infrastructure projects funded by European Union resources. This requirement arises from the European Commission’s communication “Technical Guidance on the Climate Proofing of Infrastructure in the Period 2021-2027”. Additionally, Estonian Business and Innovation Agency (EAS) has prepared a guideline for climate proofing based on the established communication.
The goal is to assess whether the planned infrastructure project contributes to climate change mitigation and how susceptible it is to long-term climate impacts. At the same time, it must be ensured that the principle of prioritizing energy efficiency is followed and that the level of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the project is in line with the greenhouse gas reduction target set for 2030 and the climate neutrality goal set for 2050.
What Does Climate Proofing Include?
Climate proofing involves analyzing the impacts of climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. The climate change mitigation analysis includes an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, while the climate change adaptation analysis focuses on resilience to climate change. The assessment is conducted in stages (see Figure 1). Depending on the sector, the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, and the risks associated with climate change adaptation, the assessment may be limited to stage 1 but may also require a detailed analysis, which is carried out in stage 2.
Infrastructure is a broad concept, which includes buildings (e.g., schools, industrial facilities, etc.), network infrastructures (e.g., energy grids, power plants, railways, ports, roads, etc.), various built systems (e.g., waste management systems), and other assets. An infrastructure project requiring climate proofing can be a new project or the renovation, modernization or expansion of an existing one.
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate change mitigation involves efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase carbon sequestration. In the first stage of climate change mitigation, it is determined through screening whether the planned project requires a GHG footprint assessment, i.e., if the project falls into the category of infrastructure projects that must conduct a GHG footprint assessment (see Figure 1). If required, the assessment proceeds to stage 2 – a detailed analysis and GHG emissions inventory.
The objective of the analysis is to provide a transparent overview of the planned activities and their GHG emissions by activity category (see Figure 2). This involves creating a GHG emissions inventory that assesses the company’s direct emissions (scope 1; e.g., company vehicles and on-site energy production) and indirect emissions (scope 2 and scope 3; purchased energy, procured products, etc.). The GHG emissions must be assessed during the planning and design stages, as decisions made at these stages impact the total emissions throughout the project’s lifecycle. GHG emissions are modeled for one operational year. The GHG footprint assessment includes not only CO2 but also other greenhouse gases, with the analysis converted to the standard unit of CO2 equivalent tons per year (t CO2e). If the project’s absolute emissions (including emissions generated by the project) or relative emissions exceed the threshold of 20,000 t CO2e per year, a detailed stage 2 analysis must be conducted. This includes considering GHG emissions costs (shadow cost of carbon) and analyzing the planned project’s alignment with European Union’s climate goals.
Climate Change Adaptation
The aim of resilience assessment is to identify significant climate risks that may impact the infrastructure project and/or its location. Identifying these risks is essential for determining, planning, and implementing optimal climate change adaptation measures. This ensures that the climate risk to the project is reduced to an acceptable level.
The first stage of the climate change adaptation analysis consists of three parts: sensitivity analysis, exposure analysis (an assessment of current and future exposure to hazards), and then combining these two to evaluate the project’s vulnerability to climate change. If significant climate risks are identified that require further detailed analysis, the process moves to the second stage – the detailed analysis phase.
In the detailed analysis phase, a comprehensive assessment of the potential climate risks to the planned project is conducted. This involves identifying optimal adaptation options and measures to ensure resilience to climate change. The analysis includes evaluating the likelihood of risk realization, the impact of climate hazards, the risk of adverse effects, and determining adaptation options. The developed adaptation measures should be integrated into the planning and/or implementation of the infrastructure project to enhance its resilience to changing climate conditions. It is also necessary to assess the project’s and adaptation measures’ compliance with strategic planning documents related to climate change adaptation, and to evaluate the need for regular monitoring and follow-up.
Previous Experience
Hendrikson DGE has conducted climate proofing for various companies: Corestone Green OÜ, NPM Silmet (now Magnet Ventures Europe OÜ), Vinkymon OÜ, Icosagen AS, OÜ Estover Piimatööstus, AS Eesti Raudtee, and others.
Service inquiry
For additional information and price inquiries, please contact us at dge@dge.ee